Football isn't a game that revolves around averages. It’s an individual game. Averages over the course of the season don't paint a clear picture of success. 

Talking with longtime college football coach Tony DeMeo reminded me of some critical statistics and game examples that proved this point. These statistics have a high correlation with winning, and according to DeMeo, the rest can be thrown out as a measure of success. 

This is especially true in big games. DeMeo said, “David didn’t play Goliath two out of three. It was a one-time match.”  Being the football guru he is, DeMeo built his offensive philosophy around these stats.

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1. Score a baseline of 25 points in each game. If you do that, you'll win 88 percent of your games, according to DeMeo. He pointed out how in the 2011 College Football Playoff National Championship game, Oregon averaged 47 points per contest (best in the nation) going in, but scored just 19 points and lost to Auburn. It was also evident in the 2017 NFL playoffs. In 10 playoff games, only one time did a team that scored 25 lose. 

2. Hold the opponent to 16 points or less. If you do, you'll win 92 percent of your games. DeMeo believes this tells a coach they have to protect the defense. How's that done? It isn't going with a high-tempo offense when you play a superior opponent. The defense will be exposed.

3. If you score a non-offensive touchdown, you win 90 percent of the time. This will skew certain data points in favor of the opponent, such as total offense or time of possession, but victories correlate strongly with defensive or special teams scores.

4. If you have a +2 turnover margin, you'll win 98 percent of your games. Obviously, this means the offense needs to take care of the ball, but also, the defense must take it away.

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How does this wrap into a philosophy for coach?

Move the ball for 25 points against the best teams on your schedule. Most likely, the best teams have better players. That means power football and going toe-to-toe with the run game probably isn’t the best option. 

DeMeo would employ things to keep them off-balance and take their best players out of the game. Option, the quick game and screens became the core of his offense. 

“The better they're coached, the better my plays work," he said.

For example, a well-coached team is known for pursuit. So DeMeo utilized the pitch, screens and hitches, forcing the defense to chase sideline-to-sideline. His goal was to use those plays to wear the defense down.

“To control the clock, run the rock,” DeMeo said.

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The object is to win the game, not score as many points as possible. The key is to not turn the ball over. DeMeo did things like the triple option, but made it a low-risk play. He established the principle, “better long than wrong.” By using what he called “smart splits,” he could elongate the mesh for a good decision by the quarterback. He minimized risk in the passing game by giving the quick game a boot escape. 

DeMeo took those four key statistics and used them as a foundation for his philosophy. From there, he built an offense and constructed game plans, all with those four four data points at the core. The result was a highly successful collegiate career good for 137 wins.

This is an updated version of a blog that originally published Feb. 10, 2017.